Future Climate Change Impact on the Streamflow of Mahi River Basin Under Different General Circulation Model Scenarios

Climate change (precipitation and temperature) has significantly affected the hydrological regimes future climate projection. Integration of model with physical based is crucial for quantitative measurement changes in surface water regime. For accurate estimation, modelling framework need finer scale resolution output. In this study, we examined bias corrected, statistically downscale models drawn from NASA, Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections–Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP5) over study region. The rainfall temperature projection output INMCM-4, MRI-CGCM3 their ensemble mean performed well Mahi River basin (MRB), India. data integrated SWAT to analyse potential impact on discharge MRB. finding indicates that near (2011–2040) annual average streamflow increases by 76.74% INMCM-4 outputs, 25% 24.53% comparison baseline period (1981–2010). Further, results monthly rainy season indicated lowest highest will be ranging about 631.07–2718.42 m3/s as observed 491.71–2938 MRI-CGCM3, 513.02–2270.18 mean, future. Similarly, summer season, level stream flow found 158.27 193.38 (ensemble mean) 258.53 (INMCM-4), respectively. Additionally, trend was assessed Mann–Kendall Sen’s slope method at monthly, seasonal scales. represented ascending south west winter monsoon, while descending pre-monsoon post-monsoon under mean. Results projected precipitation, accretion would help develop effective adaptation measures reducing impacts work out long-term resource management plans river basin.